---
title: "Delphi technique"
subject: "ICT Project Management"
chapter: 12
key: "semester_7/ict_project_management:delphi-technique"
source: https://www.bctengineer.com/q/semester_7/ict_project_management/delphi-technique
site: BCT Engineering
---

# Delphi technique

ICT Project Management · Chapter 12: Project Risk Management

- Asked in: year not given
- Video: [Software Estimation - Delphi Technique](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtMp-MVZkTU) — Murali Chemuturi
- Answer checked by Claude Opus 5.5 (high effort) on 2026-10-14
- Page: https://www.bctengineer.com/q/semester_7/ict_project_management/delphi-technique
- Whole chapter: https://www.bctengineer.com/md/semester_7/ict_project_management/chapter-12

## Question

Explain the Delphi technique.

## Short answer

The Delphi technique is a structured, anonymous, multi-round questionnaire method to achieve expert consensus. Facilitators summarise responses after each round, allowing experts to revise opinions without face-to-face influence. It reduces bias and dominance, and is used for risk identification, estimating and forecasting.

## Answer

The **Delphi technique** is a structured information-gathering and consensus technique in which a group of experts answers questionnaires anonymously, in several rounds, with a facilitator summarising the answers after each round. It was developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s. In project management it is used for risk identification, estimating (cost, time, effort) and forecasting.

#### Process
```text
Select experts -> Round 1 questionnaire
   -> Collect anonymous responses
   -> Facilitator summarises -> Feedback to experts
   -> Round 2 (revise opinions) -> ... -> Consensus
```
1. **Select a panel** of experts (not meeting face to face).
2. **Define the problem** and prepare the questionnaire.
3. **Round 1**: experts give opinions or estimates anonymously.
4. **Facilitator** compiles and summarises results with reasons.
5. **Feedback**: the summary goes back to experts, who revise their views.
6. **Repeat** for 2-4 rounds until responses converge.
7. **Final report** with the consensus.

#### Characteristics
- Anonymity prevents dominance by strong personalities and bandwagon effects.
- Iteration with controlled feedback.
- Statistical group response (median, range).
- Experts can be geographically dispersed.

#### Advantages
- Reduces bias and group pressure.
- Uses expertise of many people.
- Low cost; no meetings needed.
- Good for uncertain problems with little data.

#### Disadvantages
- Time-consuming (many rounds).
- Depends on quality of experts and facilitator.
- Consensus may hide valid minority views.
- Low response can weaken results.

| Delphi | Brainstorming |
|---|---|
| Anonymous | Face to face, open |
| Multiple rounds | Single session |
| Written | Verbal |

**Example:** To identify risks in a nationwide ERP rollout, ten experts list risks anonymously, the facilitator groups them, and after three rounds the team agrees on the top 15 risks and probability ratings.

## Check yourself

The answer's key points as multiple-choice questions, with the correct option and why.

1. Why are responses in the Delphi technique anonymous?
   A. To prevent dominance by strong personalities and bandwagon effects
   B. To save paper
   C. To allow face-to-face debate
   D. To skip facilitator
   Answer: A. Anonymity reduces bias and group pressure. (Key point: Anonymity)

2. What does the facilitator do after each round?
   A. Announces the winner
   B. Summarises responses and feeds them back to the experts
   C. Meets experts face to face
   D. Stops the process
   Answer: B. Summary feedback lets experts revise views until consensus. (Key point: Process)

3. Which is a disadvantage of Delphi?
   A. It needs expensive meetings
   B. It is biased by dominant people
   C. It is time-consuming and consensus may hide minority views
   D. It needs experts together
   Answer: C. Multiple rounds take time; consensus may hide minority views. (Key point: Disadvantage)