Proposal for an earthquake deaths study

Objectives

1. To assess the level of earthquake risk in Kathmandu Valley, based on past events and geology.
2. To find out why buildings and infrastructure were damaged in the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, and how many buildings do not follow the building code.
3. To measure the preparedness of households, schools and local governments.
4. To recommend practical measures to reduce deaths and damage in future earthquakes.

Procedure

1. Literature and data review (months 1-2): collect reports from the National Reconstruction Authority, the Department of Mines and Geology, and the Central Bureau of Statistics.
2. Sampling (month 2): select 10 wards in the Valley by soil type and building density, and choose 400 buildings.
3. Field inspection (months 3-5): engineers will check the structure type, age, material quality and compliance with the Nepal National Building Code using a rapid visual checklist.
4. Survey (months 4-6): a questionnaire for 600 households and 20 schools on awareness, drills and emergency kits; interviews with ward officials and rescue groups.
5. Analysis (months 7-8): identify the most vulnerable building types and areas using simple statistics and maps.
6. Reporting (months 9-10): prepare the report with recommendations and present it at a workshop with the municipalities.

Rationale

Nepal lies in one of the most earthquake-prone regions of the world, and the 2015 Gorkha earthquake killed nearly 9,000 people and destroyed about half a million houses. Experts warn that another large earthquake will come. Most deaths are caused by the collapse of poorly built houses, which is preventable. Yet there is no recent, complete study of how safe the buildings are. This study will provide evidence to guide policy, retrofitting and training. The money spent on prevention is much smaller than the cost of rebuilding after a disaster, and the lives saved cannot be measured in money.