- Asked 3/21
- 2070 Bhadra · 4 marks
Define load forecast
Short answer
Load forecast estimates future peak power and energy demand for a period and area, classified by horizon from very short-term to long-term. It considers population, economy, past trends, price, weather and policy, using methods like trend, econometric, end-use, time series. It is the first input for integrated system planning.
Define load forecast (on the basis of integrated system planning approach).
Load forecast is the estimate of the future electrical demand of a system, in terms of peak power (MW) and energy (MWh/GWh), for a given time period and area. It is the first and most basic input of integrated system planning.
Types by time horizon
| Type | Horizon | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Very short-term | Minutes–1 hour | Real-time control, AGC |
| Short-term | 1 hour–1 week | Unit commitment, dispatch, reserve |
| Medium-term | 1 month–1 year | Maintenance, fuel, hydro scheduling |
| Long-term | 1–25 years | Generation, transmission, distribution expansion |
Factors considered
Population and economic growth, past consumption trend, electricity price, weather, new connections (industries, EVs, cooking), and government policy.
Methods
Trend extrapolation, econometric (regression), end-use method, time series, and intelligent methods (ANN, fuzzy logic).
Role in integrated planning
It decides how much generation, transmission and distribution capacity is needed and when. Forecasts are made in high, base and low scenarios to handle load uncertainty. Example: NEA's load forecast is used to decide the timing of new hydro projects and 400 kV lines.
✓ Answer checked by Claude Opus 5.5 (high effort)
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