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Nepal electricity demand, supply and trend

Short answer

Current supply exceeds 3000 MW, about 95% run-of-river, while peak demand is around 2000–2300 MW; wet-season surplus is exported and dry-season deficit imported. Near-future trends include rising demand from electric vehicles and cooking, completion of storage projects like Tanahu, and export agreements targeting 10,000 MW to India. Nepal will remain a seasonal exporter with storage and solar reducing the dry gap.

Discuss current Nepalese electricity scenario of demand and supply and its trend in near future.

Nepal's demand for electricity is growing at about 8–10% per year, while supply has grown even faster since 2018, so the country has moved from load shedding to seasonal surplus. Figures are approximate, as per recent NEA annual reports.

Current supply

  • Installed capacity: more than 3,000 MW, about 95% hydropower, mostly run-of-river.
  • Sources of energy in the national grid: NEA's own plants, IPP plants (now the largest share), and imports from India in the dry season.
  • Solar farms (tens of MW each) and a small diesel standby add to this.

Current demand

  • Peak demand: about 2,000–2,300 MW (evening peak).
  • Energy consumption: around 12,000–13,000 GWh/year, per-capita about 400 kWh/year.
  • Consumers: domestic users are by far the largest group by number (over 90% of consumers) and take roughly 35–40% of the energy sold; industry takes a similar share, and commercial and other users take the rest.
  • Electricity access: about 99% of households.

Demand–supply balance

SeasonSituation
Wet (Jun–Oct)Surplus; power exported to India/Bangladesh, some spill
Dry (Dec–Apr)Deficit at peak; power imported from India

The main reason is the high share of ROR plants, whose output falls to about one third in the dry season.

Trend in the near future

  1. Supply: Several thousand MW of projects are under construction (mostly IPP RoR plus storage like Tanahu). The roadmap targets about 28,500 MW by 2035.
  2. Demand: Expected to rise faster due to electric cooking, EVs (EV imports are rising fast), industrial corridors, data centres and electric irrigation. The NEA forecast shows peak demand rising to several thousand MW by 2030.
  3. Export: The long-term Nepal–India agreement (10,000 MW in ten years) and trade with Bangladesh will make Nepal a net exporter on an annual basis.
  4. Grid: 400 kV and 220 kV corridors, smart meters and better distribution will reduce losses (system loss has already fallen from about 25% to about 13%).
  5. Storage and mix: More storage hydro, pumped storage and solar will be needed to fix the dry-season deficit.

Overall, Nepal is likely to stay in surplus in the wet season, close the dry-season gap with storage plants, and become a regional power exporter.

✓ Answer checked by Claude Opus 5.5 (high effort)

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