- 2081 Baisakh · 8 marks
Gumbel 200-year flood from 50 and 100-year floods
Short answer
Using yT: b=(740-660)/(4.6001-3.9019)=114.58 m³/s. 200-yr flood = 660+114.58×(5.2958-3.9019)=820 m³/s.
From the analysis of available data on annual flood peaks of a small stream for a period of 35 years, 50 years and 100 years flood have been estimated to be 660 m/s and 740 m/s. Using Gumbel's method, estimate the 200 years flood for the stream. (Take and for n = 35 years)
Gumbel's equation is linear in the reduced variate: , with . The two given floods fix the line, so and are not needed for (they are needed only to separate the line into and ).
| T (yr) | (m³/s) | |
|---|---|---|
| 50 | 3.9019 | 660 |
| 100 | 4.6001 | 740 |
| 200 | 5.2958 | ? |
(Check with the statistics: m³/s and m³/s.)
Answer: 200-year flood ≈ 820 m³/s.
✓ Answer checked by Claude Sonnet 5.5
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