5th year peak load with population growth

The load centre peak is found by projecting the number of consumers and their consumption to the 5th year, converting energy to peak using the load factor, and combining the class peaks with their contribution factors.

Assumptions: The 5th year is counted after project completion, so with a 2-year implementation period the growth period from the survey is $n = 5 + 2 = 7$ years for both population and consumption.

Formulae

$$\begin{aligned} N_5 &= N_0 (1 + p)^n \times \text{coverage} \\ E_5 &= E_0 (1 + g)^n \\ P_{ind} &= \frac{E_5 / \text{effective days}}{24 \times LF} \\ P_{LC} &= \sum \text{CF} \times N_5 \times P_{ind} \end{aligned}$$

Growth multipliers

$$\begin{aligned} (1.018)^7 &= 1.13301 \\ (1.05)^7 &= 1.40710 \end{aligned}$$

Number of consumers in 5th year

Consumption and individual peak

Example (domestic): $P_{ind} = \dfrac{1.4071}{24 \times 0.25} = 0.23452$ kW.

Class peak and contribution to load centre peak

Answer: 5th year peak load of the load centre ≈ 21.4 kW.

(If the implementation period were ignored, i.e. $n = 5$, the result would be lower; the 2-year period is included because consumers keep growing while the project is being built.)