T/F: simulation method for small area forecast

TRUE.

Small area load forecasting predicts the location, amount and timing of load growth in small zones (a few hectares to a few km², or a feeder/distribution transformer service area). The simulation (land-use) method is better suited for this than trending.

Justification:

• In a small area the load does not grow smoothly. It stays almost zero for years, then grows very fast when the land is developed, and then saturates (S-shaped growth curve). Trending of past load data cannot predict when this sudden growth will start.
• Many small areas have little or no load history (vacant land, new housing plots), so there is nothing to extrapolate.
• The simulation method uses land-use data (residential, commercial, industrial, vacant), zoning plans, road and infrastructure development, distance to urban centres and per-hectare load densities of each land-use class. It models how and where land will be developed and converts it into load.
• It can therefore forecast load in areas where development has not yet started, and it gives the spatial (map-wise) distribution of load needed to site substations, transformers and feeders.
• It also allows "what if" studies (e.g. a new highway or industrial estate).

Trending works well for large areas where growth is smooth and history is long; for small areas the simulation method gives more accurate spatial forecasts, though it needs more data and effort.