EVA and S-curve; Rs 30,00,000, 24 months

Given data

BAC = Rs 30,00,000; planned duration = 24 months. The planned progress is assumed uniform, so $PV = \frac{\text{month}}{24} \times 30{,}00{,}000$. $EV = \%\ \text{work} \times BAC$; AC is given.

Calculation (Rs)

Sample (month 20): $PV = \frac{20}{24} \times 30{,}00{,}000 = 25{,}00{,}000$; $EV = 0.70 \times 30{,}00{,}000 = 21{,}00{,}000$; $AC = 24{,}00{,}000$.

Forecast at the latest review (month 20):

$$\begin{aligned} SV &= EV - PV = 21{,}00{,}000 - 25{,}00{,}000 = -4{,}00{,}000 \\ CV &= EV - AC = 21{,}00{,}000 - 24{,}00{,}000 = -3{,}00{,}000 \\ SPI &= \frac{EV}{PV} = \frac{21{,}00{,}000}{25{,}00{,}000} = 0.84 \\ CPI &= \frac{EV}{AC} = \frac{21{,}00{,}000}{24{,}00{,}000} = 0.88 \\ EAC &= \frac{BAC}{CPI} = \frac{30{,}00{,}000}{0.8750} = 34{,}28{,}571 \\ ETC &= EAC - AC = 34{,}28{,}571 - 24{,}00{,}000 = 10{,}28{,}571 \\ VAC &= BAC - EAC = 30{,}00{,}000 - 34{,}28{,}571 = -4{,}28{,}571 \\ \text{Forecast duration} &= \frac{24}{SPI} = \frac{24}{0.8400} = 28.6\ \text{months} \end{aligned}$$

Comment on performance

• Month 5: slightly behind schedule (SPI 0.96) and over budget (CPI 0.86).

• Month 10: ahead of schedule (SPI 1.08) and slightly under budget (CPI 1.04); the best position.

• Months 15 and 20: the performance has dropped; SPI falls to 0.84 and CPI to 0.88. The project is behind schedule and over budget, and the trend is getting worse.

• Schedule: SV = -4,00,000 and SPI = 0.84, so the project is behind schedule; only 84 % of the planned work is done. If the same rate continues, the duration becomes 28.6 months against 24 months planned.

• Cost: CV = -3,00,000 and CPI = 0.88, so the project is over budget; each rupee spent has earned Rs 0.88 of work.

• Forecast: EAC = Rs 34,28,571 against BAC = Rs 30,00,000, i.e. a final overrun of Rs 4,28,571.

S-curve (cumulative values, Rs lakh)

P = planned value, E = earned value, A = actual cost, F = forecast (completion time, EAC), * = overlapping points.

  36 |                               
     |                             F 
  33 |                               
     |                               
  30 |                        P      
     |                               
  27 |                               
     |                    P          
  24 |                    A          
     |                               
  21 |                    E          
     |               A               
  18 |               *               
     |                               
  15 |                               
     |          *                    
  12 |          P                    
     |                               
   9 |                               
     |     A                         
   6 |     *                         
     |                               
   3 |                               
     |                               
   0 |*                              
     +-------------------------------
      0    5    10   15   20   25   30  months

The planned S-curve ends at Rs 30 lakh in month 24. The earned value curve lies below it (except around month 10) and the actual cost curve lies above the earned value curve. Extending the trend, the project will be completed in about 28.6 months (instead of 24) at a cost of about Rs 34,28,571 (instead of Rs 30,00,000), an overrun of Rs 4,28,571. The manager must speed up the critical work and control cost to reduce this.

Answer: at month 20, SV = Rs -4,00,000, CV = Rs -3,00,000, SPI = 0.84, CPI = 0.88; forecast cost Rs 34,28,571 and forecast duration 28.6 months.